Movies
Daily 4K time-lapses of the Polish sovereign zero-coupon yield curve, ACM/BRW term premia, fit diagnostics and the NSS/SPF forecast family. Built from the same daily slides that drive the curves and term-premia dashboards. Watch on YouTube for full 4K quality.
Polish Sovereign Yield Curve & Term Premia — 21-year time-lapse
2005-01-07 → 2026-04-21 · 5,290 daily frames at 30 fps · 4K
What you see on each frame. Top-left: LW-NSS-fitted zero-coupon curve with the underlying coupon-bond panel as bubbles sized by outstanding amount and coloured by curve segment. Top-right: Adrian-Crump-Moench and Bauer-Rudebusch-Wu term premia at 1y/2y/5y/10y horizons. Bottom-left: daily fit diagnostics — MAE in bp, number of bonds in the daily fit, NSS β and τ parameters. Bottom-right: forecast family — NSS 1-year forwards, ACM and BRW expected-rate paths, and the NBP Survey of Professional Forecasters implied path.
Episodes to watch for:
- 2008-09 — GFC
- 2013-05 — taper tantrum
- 2015-16 — ECB QE drift
- 2020-03 — COVID dislocation
- 2021-22 — inflation surge
- 2023-26 — normalisation
Polish Sovereign Curve, Term Premia & Liquidity — Last 5 Years
2021-04 → 2026-04 · ~1,300 daily frames at 30 fps · 4K
Same four-panel layout as the full 21-year version, zoomed onto the most recent five years. This is the most expensive window in twenty-one years of Polish term-structure data: the fastest steepening in the sample, a clean Greenwood-Vayanos-Vila supply-pressure episode at the long end, the survey-versus-model horizon split visible in real time, and a venue-cap-bound bid-ask spread that hides the actual liquidity stress in 2022. The 10-year term premium is the cleaner stress signal here.
YouTube ↗ Subscribe @yieldcartography ↗Both movies render the same daily slides served behind the curves and term-premia dashboards. New videos are uploaded as the dataset extends. Subscribe to the YouTube channel for notifications.